The first month of the year is ending with a thud for stocks, which are on track to record their biggest loss since the final sell-off of the bear market last February. Even a solid vote by the Senate to give Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke another four-year term didn't remove enough uncertainty to push the market up. The market rallied as the vote progressed and fell when the result was clear. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 115.70 points, or 1.1%, to 10120.46, off 2.9% in January with one trading day left in the month. Last June was the only other down month since the bull market began last March. History suggests that a weak January performance is a worrisome sign for the rest of the year, according to data from Ned Davis Research looking at early-year performance from 1900 through 2009. In years when the Dow has risen in the first month of the year, the median rise for the rest of the year is 10.4%. In years when the Dow has fallen, the median rise for the next 11 months is just 0.[Read more...]